“TACO派 vs 等等派”--10月会是4月再现吗？

Core Viewpoints - The current market situation is being compared to previous events, particularly the "TACO trade" model, suggesting that the recent drop may present a buying opportunity [1][5][6] - Different teams have varying perspectives on whether the current downturn is a repeat of the severe adjustments seen in April or a more controlled response to ongoing trade tensions [5][10] Market Reactions - The VIX index has risen but remains at a moderate level of 21.7, significantly lower than the peak of 60 observed in April, indicating reduced panic in the market [3][10] - The market's response to Trump's new tariff threats has been more subdued compared to previous incidents, reflecting accumulated experience in handling such situations [3][10] Historical Context - Historical data shows that previous "TACO" events have led to short-term declines followed by recoveries, suggesting that current market conditions may similarly provide buying opportunities [6][9] - The analysis of past negotiation rounds indicates that both sides have historically engaged in escalating measures before reaching agreements, which may be relevant to the current situation [7] Valuation Concerns - Current valuations are notably higher than in April, with technology and consumer leaders trading at 20 times earnings compared to 18.8 times before the last round of tariffs, which may limit upside potential [12][17] - The market is not experiencing excessive panic, but the need to reflect the downturn in the U.S. service and technology sectors remains a critical issue [12] Sector Recommendations - Short-term strategies may involve shifting funds into defensive sectors such as dividends, while long-term views remain optimistic on sectors like rare earths, domestic substitutes, and military industries [16][19] - The aggressive stance from some teams suggests that significant drops in technology stocks could present valuable buying opportunities, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [16][20]