全球新能源大变局下，长时储能何以成为决胜关键｜独家

Group 1 - The global energy transition towards "carbon neutrality" is accelerating, with cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar energy increasing from 645 GW in 2015 to 3,383 GW in 2024, a growth of 424.50% [2] - The share of wind and solar energy in global installed capacity rose from 10.3% in 2015 to 31% in 2023, with projections indicating that total installed capacity could exceed 4,000 GW by 2025 [2] - The cost of electricity generated from solar and wind has become significantly more competitive compared to coal and gas, driving the large-scale adoption of renewable energy [2] Group 2 - The challenge of energy consumption and storage is becoming a critical issue as renewable energy sources like wind and solar gain prominence, with energy storage seen as a key solution [3][4] - Current storage technologies, particularly long-duration storage, are insufficient, with the average storage duration in China being only 2.2 hours, while 4-hour and above storage systems account for only 15.4% of installed capacity [4] - Policies have been introduced to promote the development and application of long-duration storage technologies, including requirements for renewable energy projects to incorporate 4-hour storage capabilities [4][5] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration has set ambitious targets for new energy systems, aiming for a new storage capacity of over 180 million kW by 2027, with direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [5] - The action plan emphasizes the need for technological breakthroughs in long-duration storage to address the intermittency of wind and solar energy [5][6] - The demand for long-duration storage is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that by 2030, long-duration storage could account for 20% of total new storage capacity in China [9] Group 4 - The average storage duration in the U.S. is 3.3 hours, while in China it is 2.1 hours, highlighting the varying stages of development in different regions [14] - The International Long-Duration Energy Storage Council predicts that long-duration storage will become the most cost-effective flexibility solution as renewable energy penetration increases [14] - Various storage technologies, including hydrogen storage, pumped hydro, compressed air, and liquid flow batteries, are being explored for their suitability in long-duration applications [16][17] Group 5 - Initial investment costs for different storage technologies vary significantly, with lithium-ion batteries being the most cost-effective at 500 yuan/kWh, followed by compressed air at 1,250 yuan/kWh, and liquid flow batteries at 2,000 yuan/kWh [20][21] - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for lithium-ion batteries is competitive with compressed air storage, indicating a shift in market dynamics [20][21] - As renewable energy generation increases, the limitations of 4-hour storage will necessitate the adoption of longer-duration storage solutions, with liquid flow batteries and compressed air storage expected to play a significant role [22][23]