中金：中美关税“再升级”，A股影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions is expected to have a weaker impact on A-shares compared to previous events, with a continued revaluation of Chinese assets anticipated in the medium term [3][4]. Market Impact - The US plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has led to significant declines in global equity markets and commodities [2][3]. - Major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced declines of 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively, marking the largest single-day drops since April [2]. - A-shares, including the ChiNext and Hang Seng Tech Index, also saw declines of 5.6% and 3.3% respectively, indicating a broader market reaction [2]. Industry Analysis - Machinery, Military, and Shipbuilding: Increased focus on "self-sufficiency" and "security" assets is expected, with scientific instruments and high-end machine tools being particularly relevant [3]. - Aerospace Engine Supply Chain: There is potential for further improvement in domestic aerospace engine self-sufficiency, which is currently highly dependent on external sources [4]. - Software: Attention is drawn to industrial software and EDA design tools that may be primarily targeted by new tariffs [4]. - Power Equipment and New Energy: The energy storage cell segment may face restrictions similar to those seen in April, impacting leading companies in the new energy sector [4]. - Photovoltaics: The marginal impact of US tariff policies on the photovoltaic industry is expected to be limited [4]. - Non-ferrous Metals: The comprehensive and deepened export controls on rare earths signal significant strategic implications, with current export volumes remaining stable [4]. Valuation Insights - A-shares are currently assessed to be within a reasonable valuation range, with the CSI 300 index trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.5x, slightly above its historical average [6][7]. - Compared to global markets, A-shares remain relatively undervalued, with the S&P 500 and other major indices trading at higher forward P/E ratios [6]. - The relative attractiveness of equities remains, with the CSI 300 index's dividend yield at approximately 2.6%, compared to the yield on ten-year government bonds [6][7]. Market Positioning - The current market environment suggests a potential for short-term adjustments, particularly in growth sectors that have seen significant gains [5][6]. - The valuation of A-shares relative to GDP and M2 is low, indicating room for growth and investment opportunities [7][12].