贸易担忧情绪缓解：申万期货早间评论-20251013

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of trade concerns, with positive movements in stock futures and commodities, while highlighting the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on various markets [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Indices - U.S. stock futures opened higher, with the S&P 500 futures up 1.1% and Nasdaq futures up 1.4% [1]. - The market experienced a significant pullback due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan [2]. - The financing balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan to 2.429195 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift towards a bullish trend despite short-term volatility [2][12]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $4,060 per ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions and a lack of pressure from traditional bearish factors [3][20]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions [3][20]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices fell approximately 4% following the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating the significant impact of trade tensions on global supply chains [4][14]. - The trade war is expected to disrupt supply chain efficiency, leading to reduced demand for oil and petrochemical products [4][15]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, resulting in a potential downward trend for oil prices [4][15]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earths, emphasizing the need for dialogue with the U.S. to resolve trade issues [1][8]. - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China showed a slight decline to 89.0 in September, indicating challenges amid a complex external environment [9].