兴业证券王涵 | 百年变局，棋至中盘——贸易战点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the limited impact of Trump's recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, suggesting it is a reactive measure rather than a well-thought-out strategy, and emphasizes that the underlying factors supporting the A-share market remain unchanged despite potential short-term disturbances [2][3][12]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Tariff Threat - Trump's tariff threat is seen as a passive response to China's countermeasures, with limited actual impact on the U.S. economy [2]. - The cost of any new tariffs would primarily fall on U.S. consumers, as import prices have remained stable despite rising tariffs [2]. - Implementing such tariffs could disrupt U.S. supply chains and exacerbate risks in the consumer sector, particularly as the U.S. attempts to revitalize its industrial base [2][3]. Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The supportive factors for the current A-share market rally, including China's proactive strategy and strong industrial capabilities, have not changed [4]. - China's assertive stance against U.S. bullying measures and its industrial strength are seen as positive for market risk appetite [4]. - Despite Trump's threats, the likelihood of a systemic shift in the A-share market remains low, as the underlying logic supporting the market's upward trend is intact [5][12]. Group 3: Long-term U.S. Challenges - The U.S. faces institutional disadvantages in the context of great power competition, including a weak governance structure that hampers investment in critical sectors [6][8]. - The U.S. military-industrial complex is criticized for resource misallocation and inefficiencies, which could hinder its competitive edge [6]. - The societal values in the U.S. contribute to class divisions and a "new aristocracy," which may limit broad-based support for national competitiveness [7][8]. Group 4: Short-term Focus Areas - The U.S. is at a disadvantage in the AI competition, with critical areas such as energy and data access posing significant challenges [9]. - Internal conflicts within the U.S. political landscape, particularly between the two parties and within Trump's camp, could escalate and have broader implications [10]. - Trump may increase pressure on the Federal Reserve for looser monetary policy to address fiscal challenges, which could affect market dynamics [11].