又打起来了！中美贸易战下的医疗器械行业

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the US-China trade war has transitioned from tariff disputes to a more systemic and long-term confrontation, impacting various industries, particularly the medical device sector [2][6]. Group 1: Policy Signals - The US government has initiated a "medical device import safety investigation," which is expected to create new systemic risks for the medical device industry [4][8]. - The focus has shifted from tariffs to national security and supply chain stability, with medical devices now being viewed as tools in economic policy and diplomatic negotiations [9][16]. - The introduction of non-tariff barriers is increasing regulatory pressure on manufacturers, affecting product pricing and procurement processes [9][14]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The US medical health sector, including medical devices, has underperformed the broader market, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 5% as of September 2025 [10]. - The industry's structural anxieties are reflected in stock volatility, driven by long investment cycles and high R&D costs, leading to short-term capital outflows [10][13]. - The expectation of policy-driven valuation fluctuations is becoming a new norm, where companies' competitiveness will depend on their ability to navigate global policy frameworks [10][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Risks - The medical device industry's core challenge is not just manufacturing capability but the stability of manufacturing processes [11]. - A decline in the US manufacturing PMI to 49.1 in September 2025 indicates a contraction, which will impact upstream suppliers and increase hidden costs for medical device manufacturers [11][12]. - The shift from low-cost manufacturing to a model prioritizing stability and control is reshaping the global supply chain dynamics [11][12]. Group 4: Structural Reassessment - The high regulatory nature of the medical device industry has led to a reassessment of its stability and defensive characteristics [12]. - The trend of "de-risking" is replacing "decoupling," indicating a move towards diversified supply chains to mitigate single risk exposure [12][17]. - The global production model is transitioning from cost optimization to risk minimization, marking a significant structural change driven by the trade war [12][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for further US import restrictions on medical devices could disrupt extensive US-China material and OEM collaborations [15]. - The medical device industry is becoming a strategic focal point in the economic and security landscape, with implications for both domestic and international market dynamics [16][17]. - The long-term competition will increasingly hinge on technology and standards, with countries and companies that master certification systems and supply stability redefining competitive boundaries [17].