热点思考 | 美元的“十字路口”——“流动性笔记”系列之五（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent strong appreciation of the US dollar, which reached a high of 99.6 on October 9, marking the highest level since early August. It questions whether the dollar can break out of the low volatility pattern observed since the third quarter and whether the long-term depreciation expectations will continue [2][5][33] - The dollar's rebound since mid-September is attributed to three phases: the first phase from September 17 to 25, where the Federal Reserve's rate cut and economic forecasts led to a recalibration of optimistic "rate cut trades," resulting in a rebound of the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar index [2][5][33] - The second phase from September 26 to October 3 saw a pause in the dollar's rebound due to concerns over a potential government shutdown, with the dollar index and 2-year Treasury yield declining slightly to 97.7 and 3.58% respectively [2][5][33] - The third phase from October 6 to 9 was characterized by a passive strengthening of the dollar due to political turmoil in Japan and France, with the election of a new Japanese leader and the resignation of the French Prime Minister impacting currency valuations [2][5][33] Group 2 - The article presents four explanations for why the dollar's rebound may not be sustainable: first, the rebound is disconnected from the US economic fundamentals, as the labor market's cooling expectations need time to materialize despite the economy's resilience [4][9][34] - Second, if the US government shutdown extends into late October, it could become a driver for dollar depreciation, with a 67% probability of a shutdown lasting more than 15 days according to betting markets [4][9][15] - Third, the political changes in Japan and France are seen as one-time events that are unlikely to change the overall market direction significantly, as the market has already priced in these developments [4][9][17] - Fourth, the ongoing US-China trade conflict may pose a new resistance to the dollar's rebound, potentially counteracting the dollar's upward momentum [4][9][20] Group 3 - The article posits that the dollar may have entered a fourth major depreciation cycle, with the current phase being early in this cycle. It emphasizes that the realization of long-term weak dollar expectations is conditional on either a reversal of appreciation conditions or the emergence of new depreciation conditions [4][35][27] - Long-term weak dollar remains the baseline assumption, but for the dollar index to break and stabilize below 95 or 90, new "game changers" are needed, such as tighter fiscal policies in the US or unexpected fiscal expansions in non-US economies [4][35][27] - The article suggests that the interplay of bullish and bearish forces behind the dollar's performance should be closely monitored, especially in the context of a potential "soft landing" for the US economy and the implications of tariff-induced inflation effects [4][35][27]