海外高频 | 关税不确定性再度上升 （申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Key Points - The article discusses the recent volatility in global risk assets, with a notable decline in major stock indices and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [2][63] - There is an increase in tariff uncertainty, particularly with Trump's renewed threats of tariffs on Chinese goods, which is a common negotiation tactic [38][63] - The political landscape in Europe is unstable, with significant events such as the French Prime Minister's sudden resignation and the Japanese ruling party's coalition changes, which could impact economic policies [40][42][63] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, highlighting concerns over private credit risks following the bankruptcy of First Brands Group [51][45][63] Asset Class Summary - Global risk assets have mostly retreated, while safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries have surged. The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.5% [2][63] - In developed markets, the Nikkei 225 rose by 5.1%, while other indices like the Hang Seng and Dow Jones saw declines [3] - Emerging markets showed mixed results, with indices like the Ho Chi Minh Index increasing by 6.2% [3] Sector Performance - In the U.S., most sectors within the S&P 500 declined, particularly energy and consumer discretionary, which fell by 4.0% and 3.3%, respectively [7] - In the Eurozone, sectors such as consumer discretionary and technology also faced declines, while utilities and consumer staples saw slight gains [7] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.1% to 98.82, while the offshore yuan depreciated to 7.15 [19][27] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil dropping by 3.3% to $58.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce [28][33] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a split among officials on the appropriateness of further rate cuts, with some advocating for caution due to loose financial conditions [51][63] - The bankruptcy of First Brands Group raised concerns about risks in the private credit market, which has seen significant growth since the pandemic [45][63]