欧洲经济前景：现在是转折点？

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a slowdown in monetary easing amid complex challenges including deflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and structural issues, particularly in Germany [2][4]. Group 1: ECB Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - On June 5, 2025, the ECB decided to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2%, indicating the end of the monetary easing cycle [3]. - The inflation rate in May 2025 was 1.9%, influenced by multiple factors, despite stable import levels and a significant decline in exports [3]. - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points for 2025 and 2026, with expected inflation rates of 2% and 1.6% respectively [8]. - The ECB's economic growth forecasts remain unchanged, predicting real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [8]. Group 2: Germany's Economic Challenges and Policy Changes - Germany's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q2 2025, primarily due to reduced exports to the U.S., with the economy facing two consecutive years of recession [10]. - Structural issues, geopolitical factors, and a decline in exports to China due to its GDP slowdown are significant contributors to Germany's economic challenges [10]. - Germany plans to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2029 and has allocated €500 billion for infrastructure modernization [12][13]. - The "debt brake" mechanism, which limits structural deficits, has been a key factor in maintaining fiscal discipline, resulting in a 16% reduction in debt-to-GDP ratio over 15 years [10][12]. Group 3: Investment Initiatives and Economic Fragmentation - A private sector initiative called "Made for Germany" aims to invest a total of €631 billion in Germany by 2028, supported by a new tax reduction policy [14]. - Despite global trade negotiations and geopolitical challenges leading to economic fragmentation, the ECB is expected to significantly reduce its intervention in economic activities in the coming months [14].