新一轮经贸争端：背景、导火索及TACO交易

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, highlighting that despite previous concerns about export declines, China's import and export growth has shown resilience in the first three quarters of the year, with a notable increase in trade volume and a shift in export dynamics towards other markets [2][5]. Trade Data Summary - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's total import and export volume reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with exports at 19.95 trillion yuan (up 7.1%) and imports at 13.66 trillion yuan (down 0.2%) [2]. - The monthly trade data for September showed a total of 4.04 trillion yuan in imports and exports, reflecting an 8% growth [2]. Recent Developments in Trade Policies - On October 3, the U.S. Customs announced high port fees for Chinese-owned vessels starting October 14, and on October 7, the U.S. House of Representatives prepared to impose export restrictions on China regarding lithography equipment [2]. - On October 10, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and Customs implemented export controls on certain rare earth materials and lithium battery components, effective November 8 [3]. Impact of Tariffs - President Trump announced on October 10 that starting November 1, a 100% additional tariff would be imposed on all imports from China, potentially raising the effective tariff rate on some goods to over 150% [3]. - The additional tariffs will affect a wide range of products, including consumer electronics, machinery, textiles, toys, and agricultural products, covering nearly the entire trade volume between the U.S. and China [3]. Export Trends and Market Reactions - Despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S., China's exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America have seen rapid growth, contributing to overall export resilience [5]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 9.6% and accounting for 60.5% of total exports [5]. Economic Analysis - The chief economist from Yuekai Securities noted that the increase in import growth, which turned positive in June, has been a key driver for overall trade growth, countering earlier negative trends due to falling commodity prices and insufficient domestic demand [4]. - The article suggests that the current trade tensions differ from previous ones due to the specific targeting of China and the nature of the tariffs, which are seen as retaliatory measures against China's export controls [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's psychological resilience has improved since April, with investors now more optimistic about potential negotiations and outcomes following the recent tariff announcements [8]. - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will not see significant volatility in trade data, as both sides have clearer demands and are likely to pursue rational resolutions to mitigate trade frictions [8].