三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that AI can empower almost all of Tencent's business lines, including gaming, advertising, fintech, cloud services, and e-commerce, and has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent to 350 billion RMB [1][10]. Valuation and Market Position - Goldman Sachs reiterated a "buy" rating for Tencent and raised its target price from 701 HKD to 770 HKD, noting that despite a significant stock price increase of 51% this year, Tencent's valuation remains attractive compared to global peers [3][5]. - Tencent's current valuation corresponds to a 2026 expected non-IFRS P/E ratio of 19 times, which drops to 16 times when excluding its investment portfolio, and is lower than Meta (24 times) and Google (23 times) [7][9]. AI Empowerment and Breakthroughs - Tencent is viewed as one of the best-positioned companies in China's internet sector for AI applications, with its self-developed Hunyuan Image 3.0 model recently ranking first in the LMarena text-to-image model leaderboard [9]. - The daily active users (DAU) of Tencent's AI application "Yuanbao" grew by 12% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 [9]. Capital Expenditure and Cloud Business Outlook - Based on optimistic AI demand, Goldman Sachs raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from 300 billion RMB to 350 billion RMB for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with annual expenditures projected at 100 billion, 117 billion, and 129 billion RMB respectively [10]. - The revenue growth forecast for Tencent's cloud business has been significantly increased, with expected growth rates of 11%, 25%, and 20% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. Core Business Growth - For the gaming business, revenue is expected to grow by 16% and 18% year-on-year in Q3 and for the full year of 2025, driven by strong performances from new games and established titles [13]. - The advertising business is projected to see a revenue growth rate of 19% for both Q3 and the full year of 2025, supported by AI-driven advertising technology upgrades [14]. - Tencent's operating profit margin is expected to expand by 212 basis points in Q3 2025, although the gap between profit growth and revenue growth may narrow due to increased costs related to AI [15].