刚果钴配额制生效在即，钴价进入结构性上行周期

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented a quota system for cobalt exports, transitioning from an export ban to a regulated quota management system, significantly impacting global cobalt supply and pricing dynamics [3][6][18]. Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The DRC government announced cobalt export quotas, ending an eight-month export ban, with annual quotas set at 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, and a remaining quarterly export limit of 18,100 tons for 2025 [3]. - Export quotas are allocated to mining companies and government-controlled platforms, excluding smelters from direct quotas [3][4]. Resource Concentration - Six mining companies and platforms control nearly 80% of the export quotas, with major allocations to companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (31,200 tons) and Glencore (13,300 tons) [4][5]. - The concentration of quotas enhances the bargaining power of these entities, as only they possess the rights to export [6]. Export Regulations - The new regulations impose strict conditions on quota transferability and require prepayment of mining rights fees, increasing operational and financial pressures on companies [7][9]. - The complexity of the new export process may lead to uncertainties in the supply chain, affecting the overall export rhythm [8][9]. Price Dynamics - The DRC's quota system is expected to shift the pricing mechanism from demand-driven to supply-driven, with domestic cobalt prices rising significantly from 169,000 CNY/ton to approximately 340,000 CNY/ton [13][14]. - The tightening of supply due to the loss of direct export rights for smelters may lead to increased procurement costs for smaller clients [14]. Industry Response - The domestic lithium battery industry is adapting by securing long-term contracts with quota holders, exploring new supply channels, and advancing cobalt-free battery technologies [16][17]. - The anticipated reduction in cobalt supply by 67,000 tons globally due to the quota system is prompting a shift in market dynamics [15][19]. Long-term Implications - The DRC's quota system is seen as a strategic move to redistribute global cobalt profits and enhance local processing capabilities, potentially leading to a more competitive landscape in the cobalt market [18][19].