黄金：不要跟黄金对着干

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in gold and silver since late August, with gold rising over 20% and silver over 30%, driven by various favorable factors including government shutdowns and renewed tariff risks, positioning gold as the ultimate insurance in the era of fiat currency [4][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged past $4,000 per ounce, particularly influenced by heightened risk aversion due to Trump's threats of increased tariffs on China, which reignited safe-haven demand [5]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has lasted for two weeks, has created uncertainty in economic data, leading to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - A critical date is approaching on October 15, when military pay issues may pressure Congress to resolve the shutdown, potentially extending economic uncertainty [5]. Group 2: Tariff Issues - The renewed tariff threats from the U.S. have intensified market volatility, with the S&P 500 index dropping 2.7%, marking its largest single-day decline since April 10, while the dollar index weakened and gold prices rose [6][7]. - The current tariff escalation appears to be a strategic response to China's control over the rare earth industry, which is significant in the U.S.-China trade conflict [7]. - Unlike previous broad tariff measures, the current situation is more targeted, and its long-term effects on market sentiment remain uncertain [7]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - Silver has outperformed gold in price increases this year, with the current market showing extreme tightness, as evidenced by a one-month silver leasing rate soaring to 35%, a historical high [8][9]. - The deep inversion in the silver futures curve indicates an unsustainable market condition that may not last [9].