数据点评 | 出口为何再“超预期”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - September exports showed strong growth due to a combination of low base effects and improved external demand [2][70] - The year-on-year export growth in September was 8.3%, significantly higher than the expected 5.7% and previous value of 4.4% [69][70] - Import growth also increased to 7.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 1.4% [69][70] Export Analysis - The strong export performance in September was influenced by a low base from the previous year, with a 3.9 percentage point increase from August [2][70] - Exports to the EU rose by 3.8 percentage points to 14.3%, benefiting from last year's decline of 11.5% [2][70] - The global manufacturing PMI for September was 50.8, indicating resilience in external demand [2][70] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US improved, likely due to ongoing inventory replenishment cycles, with a 6.1 percentage point increase to -27% [2][70] - Exports to emerging economies increased by 4.2 percentage points to 15.8%, with exports to Africa surging by 30.5% [3][71] - Despite a decline in exports to ASEAN by 6.9% to 15.7%, overall growth remained robust [3][71] Import Dynamics - Imports of mechanical and electrical products showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% to 10.1% [3][31] - Key imports included crude oil (+22.8% to 7.7%) and soybeans (+23.5% to 14.6%), indicating improved domestic demand [3][31] - Processing trade imports also rose significantly, suggesting strong external demand and stability in overall exports [3][31] Future Outlook - While tariff fluctuations and base effects may disrupt exports, improved external demand and market share gains are expected to sustain high export levels [4][72] - Leading indicators for October, such as port freight volumes and export production chains, suggest continued strength in exports [4][72] - The ongoing trend of increasing import demand from emerging economies and a shift in market share towards China are likely to support future export resilience [4][72]