美国政府停摆，1.8万亿美元赤字浮出水面

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for fiscal responsibility in the U.S. government, highlighting the alarming federal deficit of $1.8 trillion for the fiscal year 2025 and the potential risks associated with the current debt trajectory [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Budget Concerns - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) criticizes the recent government shutdown as "meaningless and wasteful," revealing a federal deficit of $1.8 trillion for FY 2025, raising concerns about the nation's fiscal path amid political gridlock [1]. - The CRFB's chair, Maya MacGuineas, warns that while borrowing levels have not increased, the lack of reduction in the deficit is troubling, with the national debt now equivalent to the overall economy and projected to exceed post-World War II records [1][3]. - The CRFB calls for immediate government operations to resume without new borrowing terms and suggests extending discretionary spending caps to control expenditures [1]. Group 2: Long-term Financial Sustainability - MacGuineas stresses the need to address the solvency crisis of long-term entitlement programs, particularly Medicare and Social Security, which could face funding depletion within seven years without reforms [2]. - The CRFB proposes the establishment of a fiscal commission aimed at reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP, acknowledging the ambitious nature of this goal given current debt trends [3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The article references hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio's skepticism regarding President Trump's claims that record growth can eliminate the $37 trillion debt, emphasizing that debt-driven prosperity is often short-lived [4]. - Dalio's analysis indicates that by 2035, publicly held debt could rise to 118% of GDP, with net interest payments increasingly burdening economic output [4]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Dalio suggests that the rising gold prices, which are expected to reach historical highs by 2025, reflect a shift in investment trends away from debt assets and fiat currencies, linking this to the increasing global debt levels, particularly the U.S. debt [5].