中金 | 低空科技系列城市篇：翼展长空守平安

Core Viewpoint - The development of urban governance drones is driven by urbanization pressures and the increasing demand for public safety, presenting significant investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy and urban safety construction [2][3][6]. Group 1: Urban Governance Challenges - Urbanization in China is accelerating, with vehicle ownership expected to exceed 460 million by June 2025, leading to severe traffic congestion [6]. - The number of high-rise buildings has surpassed one million, increasing fire hazards and complicating emergency responses [6]. - The growing floating population, which reached 376 million, heightens the need for public safety event warnings [6]. Group 2: Policy Support for Drone Applications - A multi-dimensional policy framework has been established at both national and local levels to support the application of drones in urban safety [10][11]. - The National Security Law and various local government initiatives promote the use of drones in policing and security [10][11]. Group 3: Market Potential for Urban Drones - The potential market size for urban governance drones in security, firefighting, and environmental monitoring is estimated at 136 billion yuan, with an average annual market potential of 54 billion yuan after depreciation [4][28][30]. - Specific market sizes include 95 billion yuan for urban security, 36 billion yuan for firefighting and emergency rescue, and 5 billion yuan for environmental monitoring [4][28][30]. Group 4: Industry Chain Development - The drone industry is experiencing opportunities across the entire value chain, from core component suppliers to midstream manufacturers and downstream service providers [31][32]. - Cost optimization in drone equipment and operations is enhancing the economic feasibility of large-scale applications in urban governance [31]. Group 5: Technological Advancements and Customization - Drones are evolving from generic components to customized modules tailored for specific urban applications, driven by increasing market demand and technological advancements [33][34]. - Leading manufacturers are focusing on building scalable ecosystems and enhancing their technological capabilities to meet diverse urban needs [34][35]. Group 6: Downstream Application Trends - The demand for urban drones is expanding, with applications in public safety, environmental monitoring, and emergency response becoming increasingly critical [37]. - The procurement model is shifting from traditional equipment purchases to service-oriented solutions that integrate data and operational support [36].