贵金属行情延续：申万期货早间评论-20251014

Group 1: Precious Metals - The price of spot gold has surged to a historical high of $4,130 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.5%, while New York futures reached $4,150 per ounce, setting a new record [1] - Silver prices have also crossed $52.50 per ounce, marking a historical peak, with an increase of over 0.4% in the Asia-Pacific market [1] - Concerns over renewed trade tensions have benefited gold, which is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset amid deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and rising global distrust in the financial system [2][19] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices rose by 1.64% in the overnight market, driven by ongoing tightness in concentrate supply and high smelting output despite profit margins being at breakeven [20] - Investment in the power grid continues to show positive growth, while real estate remains weak, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [20] Group 3: Oil - The SC night market saw a rebound of 0.27% in oil prices, influenced by geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza [3][13] - OPEC's October report predicts a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year, although short-term price trends may indicate a downward breakout [3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - U.S. trade tensions and the potential cancellation of new tariffs on China by President Trump have implications for market sentiment and trade dynamics [6] - China's import and export figures for September showed a year-on-year growth of 8%, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan and imports at 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating a robust trade performance [7] Group 5: Market Trends - The stock market is expected to enter a phase of directional choice, with a likely continuation of a bullish trend, supported by a loose liquidity environment and potential inflows from foreign capital [11] - The bond market is experiencing a general rise, with the 10-year treasury yield dropping to 1.754%, reflecting a favorable environment for government bonds amid ongoing trade tensions [12]