研报 | AI存储需求激发HDD替代效应，NAND Flash供应商加速转进大容量Nearline SSD

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of AI inference applications, which is driving the demand for high-capacity storage solutions, prompting HDD and SSD suppliers to expand their offerings [2][3] - The HDD market is currently facing a significant supply gap, leading NAND Flash manufacturers to accelerate the production of ultra-large capacity Nearline SSDs [2] - The transition to new HAMR technology in the HDD industry is causing high initial costs, which are being passed on to customers, resulting in an increase in average selling price per GB [2][3] HDD Market Dynamics - The HDD industry is undergoing a painful technological transition, with the initial costs of new HAMR production lines creating capacity expansion bottlenecks [2] - The average selling price per GB for HDDs has risen from $0.012-$0.013 to $0.015-$0.016, diminishing HDD's cost advantage [2] - The production costs of HDDs are expected to improve once the HAMR technology reaches economies of scale [3] NAND Flash Advantages - NAND Flash technology is advancing rapidly, with 3D stacking techniques allowing for faster capacity increases compared to HDDs [3] - The expected production ramp-up of 2Tb QLC chips in 2026 will play a crucial role in reducing Nearline SSD costs [2][3] - The structural advantages of NAND Flash in terms of cost reduction and capacity expansion make it a favorable option for data centers [3] Market Opportunities - The emergence of the Nearline SSD market presents a significant opportunity for NAND Flash suppliers, especially those looking beyond traditional smartphone and PC demands [3] - The focus is shifting towards higher density and larger capacity QLC products to meet current orders and position for future data center storage architecture leadership [3]