六氟磷酸锂突破7万元/吨，能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is driven by strong demand recovery and supply constraints, indicating a significant improvement in the industry supply-demand dynamics and marking the beginning of a new cycle in the lithium battery industry [5][21]. Price Trends - Since mid-September, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have broken out of a long-standing plateau, rising from approximately 56,000 RMB per ton on September 16 to about 68,000 RMB by October 13, reflecting an increase of over 20% in less than a month [4]. - Following the National Day holiday, prices surged further, with market averages increasing by over 8,000 RMB to around 69,000 RMB per ton, and some quotes reaching as high as 73,000 RMB, while export prices hit 80,000 RMB [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core drivers of the price increase are robust demand recovery from downstream electrolyte and battery manufacturers, coupled with a tight supply situation due to cautious production strategies adopted by lithium hexafluorophosphate producers during the industry's downturn [6][5]. - Even with production expansion plans being initiated, new capacity will take at least a year to come online, resulting in a continued shortfall in effective supply in the near term [7]. Inventory Levels - Inventory levels are critical indicators of the supply-demand relationship in the industry. As of October 10, lithium hexafluorophosphate inventory in China was only 1,500 tons, which is at the 35th percentile since 2019, indicating a very low level [9]. - Reports indicate that many leading producers have consistently shipped more than their production plans, leading to depleted inventories, with some top companies reportedly having completely exhausted their finished product stocks [9]. Production Capacity - Leading suppliers are operating at full capacity to meet the surge in orders, with the top three suppliers' operating rates at very high levels, while less competitive second and third-tier manufacturers are operating at lower loads or not at all [10]. - Tianqi Lithium confirmed that all three of its plants, with a total annual capacity of 37,000 tons, are currently running at full capacity, maintaining very low inventory levels [10]. Market Dynamics and Pricing Models - The market is experiencing a significant shift in pricing models, moving towards flexible agreements where new contracts are based on market conditions rather than fixed long-term prices [11][13]. - Battery manufacturers are also seeking new long-term agreements to secure future electrolyte supplies, with companies like Chuangneng New Energy and Ruipu Lanjun signing substantial procurement contracts [15]. Impact of AI on the Industry - The fluorochemical industry is unexpectedly benefiting from advancements in artificial intelligence, which is driving demand for higher computing power and larger data centers, leading to a shift from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling technologies [16][17]. - Companies like Sinoma Technology are positioned to benefit from this dual growth in both the new energy and AI sectors due to their technological and raw material expertise in the fluorochemical field [18]. Historical Context - The current price rebound of lithium hexafluorophosphate is reminiscent of the price surge from 2020 to early 2022, where prices reached 600,000 RMB per ton, but the market environment today is significantly different [20]. - The price increase is widely viewed as a strong indication of a substantial improvement in the industry supply-demand balance and the end of the previous overcapacity situation, signaling the start of a new cycle in the lithium battery supply chain [21].