如何看待白银的突破？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term and medium-term price trends of silver, highlighting significant price movements and the factors influencing these trends, including macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [4][10][94]. Group 1: Long-term Price Trends - Silver has experienced two major bull and bear cycles since the 1980s, with the current bull market starting in 2020 and breaking the $50 mark recently [4]. - Historical peaks for London silver approached $50, while New York silver has been relatively subdued in comparison [4]. Group 2: Medium-term Price Trends - Seasonal price patterns indicate that March, April, and June typically see lower prices, while January, February, July, and December perform better [6]. - The current market has seen a record of six consecutive monthly gains, surpassing the previous record of five [6]. Group 3: Silver Analysis Framework - The financial attributes of silver have shifted to commodity attributes, with 59% of its characteristics now aligned with commodities, making it more sensitive to inflation expectations than gold [10]. - Silver's pricing is primarily based on gold, but its historical volatility is greater than that of gold [10]. Group 4: Influencing Factors and Outlook - The narrative of "de-dollarization" continues to gain traction, with major economies diversifying their foreign reserves by reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [19]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and market expectations are crucial, with the neutral interest rate currently at 3.2%, slightly above the Fed's long-term rate [23][27]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver supply is primarily sourced from mining, accounting for over 80% of total supply, with production levels stable above 25,000 tons [55]. - Industrial demand for silver is robust, particularly in electronics and photovoltaics, which constitute nearly 60% of total demand [64][68]. Group 6: Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver has seen a resurgence, with physical investment increasing significantly, evidenced by a doubling of delivery volumes on Comex compared to the previous year [76][82]. - The anticipated supply-demand gap for silver is projected to narrow in 2025, with a forecasted physical demand of 35,716 tons, down 1% from the previous year [83].