国泰海通 · 晨报1015｜固收

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising risk aversion in global debt markets due to the U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions with China, leading to a significant influx of capital into safe assets like U.S. Treasuries [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened, with 10-year and 30-year yields decreasing by 6.2 and 7 basis points respectively, while the 2-year and 10-year spread remains at 52.8 basis points [3]. - European sovereign bonds have also benefited from the risk-averse sentiment, with Germany's 10-year bond yield falling by 7 basis points to 2.63% [3]. - The offshore RMB sovereign bond market saw a rise, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%, and the domestic and offshore yield spread widening from 3.22 to 11.48 basis points [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Credit Risk - The global funding market is characterized by short-term easing and ample liquidity, with the U.S. SOFR narrowing from 0.026% to 0.048%, indicating sufficient interbank funding supply [4]. - Despite stable core liquidity indicators, the re-pricing of sovereign credit risk has led to structural differentiation in interest rates across markets, with a notable decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reflecting increased demand for safe assets [4]. - Investment-grade bond spreads remain stable, while high-yield bond spreads have widened, indicating heightened sensitivity to credit risk in a liquid environment [4]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The article suggests a strategic asset allocation approach that includes overweighting safe assets, increasing exposure to emerging market sovereign debt, tactically overweighting long-term U.S. Treasuries, and being cautious about credit risk [4].