国泰海通证券研究·2025-10-14 14:08Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand has decreased, with apparent consumption of five major steel products at 7.5143 million tons, down 1.5339 million tons week-on-week; total inventory rose to 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in demand due to the National Day holiday [2]. - Despite the recent decline, the steel demand is expected to gradually recover as the industry is still in the traditional peak season [2]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 167.1 CNY, up 24.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 112.1 CNY, an increase of 29.3 CNY [3]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 56.28%, down 0.43% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 140.25 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons, suggesting a potential easing in iron ore prices and improvement in cost factors for the steel industry [3]. Future Outlook - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize, with a reduced negative impact from the real estate sector and steady growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing [4]. - The steel industry is experiencing a market-driven supply adjustment, with over 40% of steel companies currently operating at a loss [4]. - Recent policy proposals aim to continue production cuts and promote the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting a balanced supply-demand dynamic [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that industry concentration will increase, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages, especially under stricter environmental regulations [4].