国泰海通｜地产：土地收储专项债发行提速

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a decrease in new land reserve planning in Q3 2025, but a significant acceleration in actual funding availability, suggesting a positive outlook for future funding implementation [1][2]. Group 1: Land Reserve Planning - In Q3 2025, new land reserve planning decreased, with a cumulative planned reserve amount exceeding 610 billion yuan. The newly planned reserve amount for Q3 2025 was 131.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.4% compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The top three provinces for cumulative reserve scale were Zhejiang (84.3 billion yuan), Guangdong (74 billion yuan), and Chongqing (50.5 billion yuan) [2]. - The characteristics of the acquired land parcels remained consistent with the first half of the year, with 78.5% of the land parcels being "new parcels" acquired between 2020 and 2024, and an average discount rate of 0.8 [2]. Group 2: Special Bond Issuance - In Q3 2025, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with actual funding exceeding 90 billion yuan in a single quarter. A total of 195 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds was issued nationwide, covering 32% of the planned reserve amount, an increase of 12 percentage points from the previous half [3]. - The newly issued amount in Q3 2025 was 98.9 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in actual funding availability [3]. - Only eight provinces have implemented special bond issuance, with the top three in coverage being Hunan (37.8 billion yuan, 96%), Jiangsu (24.3 billion yuan, 83%), and Guangdong (48.6 billion yuan, 66%) [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, the focus will remain on the large-scale promotion of the land reserve process, particularly the implementation of special bonds. The operational model for land acquisition has become replicable and promotable since early 2025 [4]. - The actual funding scale is still lagging behind the planned reserve scale, and the structure of land reserves will be an important reference for market recovery in various regions [4].