重磅！鲍威尔敞开降息大门：9月会议以来前景没多大变化，就业下行风险显著，或接近停止缩表（附讲稿）

Core Views - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of deterioration, with increased risks of job losses, despite some economic data suggesting slightly stronger growth than expected [1][3][25] - The Federal Reserve may consider pausing its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, as liquidity conditions appear to be tightening [6][21] - The Fed's ability to control interest rates could be compromised if it is unable to pay interest on reserves, leading to greater market disruption [8][23] Economic Outlook - Recent data indicates that the economic growth trajectory may be more robust than previously anticipated, with the unemployment rate remaining low but wage growth slowing significantly [3][25][26] - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate was reported at 2.9% over the past 12 months, reflecting a slight increase due to rising core goods prices [26][27] Labor Market Dynamics - Job vacancies are declining, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, highlighting the potential for further job losses [5][25] - The Fed's assessment of risks related to employment and inflation has shifted, prompting a more neutral policy stance in September [27] Monetary Policy Considerations - The Fed is closely monitoring liquidity indicators and may take cautious actions to avoid a repeat of the "taper tantrum" experienced in 2019 [6][21] - The current framework of ample reserves has proven effective in controlling policy rates and supporting financial stability [20][24] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at approximately $6.5 trillion, is primarily composed of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities [14][15] - There is an ongoing discussion about adjusting the composition of the Fed's asset holdings, with a potential increase in short-term assets [9][22]