LVMH三季度营收意外增长1%，丝芙兰表现抢眼，ADR大涨8%

Core Viewpoint - LVMH reported a surprising 1% organic revenue growth in Q3, reaching €18.28 billion, ending two consecutive quarters of decline and exceeding analyst expectations of zero growth [3][4] Financial Performance - Q3 organic revenue grew by 1% to €18.28 billion, surpassing analyst expectations; revenue for the first nine months was €58.1 billion, down 4% year-on-year [3][4] - The fashion and leather goods segment saw a 2% decline in Q3, better than the anticipated 3.48% drop; perfumes and cosmetics grew by 2%, while selective retailing, including Sephora, experienced a strong 7% growth [3][4][6] Regional Performance - Asia (including China) grew by 2% in Q3, contrasting with a 9% decline in the first half; the U.S. market grew by 3%, while Japan saw a significant 13% decline, and Europe dropped by 2% due to currency effects [4][12] - The strong performance of LVMH's stock led to a rise in the luxury goods sector, with Kering and Richemont shares also increasing [4][9] Structural Challenges in Core Business - The fashion and leather goods segment, which includes brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior, is crucial, contributing over two-thirds of the group's profits [5] - This segment's revenue was €8.5 billion in Q3, down 2% year-on-year, while the first nine months saw an 8% decline from €29.92 billion to €27.61 billion [6][7] Performance in Other Business Segments - The selective retailing segment achieved a 7% organic growth to €3.99 billion, primarily driven by strong performance from Sephora [7] - The wine and spirits segment unexpectedly grew by 1%, benefiting from U.S. market restocking of champagne and rosé wine, reversing the expected 3% decline [7] China Market Insights - The performance in China was a key highlight, with a 2% growth in Q3, contrasting sharply with the earlier 9% decline; the CFO noted encouraging demand despite macroeconomic challenges [8] - The sustainability of this recovery in China amidst uncertain macroeconomic conditions is critical for the luxury goods sector [8] Market Outlook and Challenges - Despite the positive Q3 results, caution is advised as the CFO indicated that the Q4 comparison will be more challenging, while 2026 may present easier comparisons [11] - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures, including a strong euro impacting revenue, and structural adjustments in the luxury sector due to changing consumer behavior and geopolitical uncertainties remain significant challenges [11][12]