2026出口初窥：如何理解关税冲击与需求前置的影响？——9月进出口数据点评

Core Viewpoints - In September, China's exports in USD terms increased by 8.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 7.1% and the previous month's 4.4% [2][15] - The increase in exports is attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, an increase in working days, and a marginal improvement in external demand, as indicated by the PMI new export orders index reaching its highest level in nearly five years [4][7] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, exports may experience fluctuations due to base effects, with expectations of continued strength in the EU, ASEAN, and Africa, while the US remains weak [4][9] Group 1: September Export Performance - September exports exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, supported by a low base from the previous year and a favorable working day count [4][15] - The average year-on-year growth over the past two years was 5.3%, lower than August's 6.5%, indicating a potential slowdown in growth momentum [7][15] - The PMI new export orders index for September rose to 47.8%, the highest in nearly five years, reflecting resilience in external demand [7][15] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the US showed a significant year-on-year decline of 26.8%, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 14%, 15.8%, and 56.8% respectively [22][54] - The rebound in exports to Africa was notable, with a month-on-month increase of 20.3%, while exports to ASEAN experienced a seasonal decline [23][54] - The overall trend indicates that while the US remains weak, the EU, ASEAN, and Africa continue to show strength in demand [9][54] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The WTO has revised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 from 1.8% to 0.5%, primarily due to the gradual impact of tariffs and the diminishing effect of demand front-loading [10][29] - The core concern regarding tariffs is the potential β risk, which could lead to a collapse in US demand and a subsequent decline in global trade demand; however, current indicators suggest this risk remains low [5][29] - Observations indicate that neither the US nor the EU has shown significant signs of "import grabbing" from China, with US imports primarily driven by durable goods purchases without substantial inventory accumulation [11][41]