Core Viewpoint - The technology growth sector is experiencing a collective pullback, while high-dividend sectors like finance are performing well amidst rising short-term risk aversion. The market is expected to maintain a sideways trend with potential upward movement in the medium term despite short-term impacts from external events [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have continued a sideways consolidation pattern since October, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around a 150-point range [1]. - The market has shown increased divergence, particularly in response to external tariff events, but has developed a certain "immunity" to tariff shocks compared to April, resulting in limited panic [1]. - The focus for October includes the clarification of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the disclosure of Q3 reports, and event-driven developments in the technology sector, which are expected to catalyze multiple sectors and support a continued upward trend [1]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The technology sector remains a focal point in October, with orderly rotation and high-low switching expected. Underperforming areas like robotics, military, and smart vehicles may see a rebound, while leading sectors such as computing hardware, domestic semiconductors, and new energy could present buying opportunities upon adjustment [2]. - The trend towards domestic robotics and their integration into daily life is anticipated to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands as the market expects updates to Tesla's humanoid robot [3]. - The semiconductor industry is on a path towards domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. - The military sector is expected to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with many sub-sectors showing signs of bottoming out as mid-year performance declines narrow [3]. - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [3]. - The banking sector has begun to recover from the impact of loan rate re-pricing, with mid-year performance growth increasing and attractive dividend yields drawing interest from long-term institutional investors [3].
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申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2025-10-15 02:51