Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of various asset classes, highlighting the historical rise in gold prices and the mixed performance of the stock market post-holidays, suggesting potential investment strategies in light of these trends [1]. Stock Market - After the holidays, the A-share market opened positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index quickly surpassing 3900 points, closing at 3897.03 points, a 1.80% increase. However, the ChiNext Index experienced a decline, indicating a divergence in market performance [3][1]. - The driving forces behind the market include capital inflows and industry catalysts, with a notable adjustment in margin financing impacting market dynamics. Despite short-term volatility, long-term opportunities remain, particularly in the technology sector and resource-based industries [3][1]. Bond Market - The bond market has shown slight improvement in risk-reward ratios following adjustments in the third quarter, with a focus on short-duration and coupon strategies. However, the lack of significant fundamental improvements may limit support for bond prices [4][1]. Commodity Market - Gold prices have been influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts, U.S. political gridlock, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Following a significant rise, gold may face short-term pressure due to profit-taking and a strengthening dollar, but it retains long-term investment value [5][1]. Overseas Assets - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government shutdown and its implications for economic data releases, which could affect Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, supported by strong fundamentals [6][1]. Industry Performance - In the recent week, the non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals sectors outperformed, with respective gains of 11.89%, 7.89%, and 4.62%. Conversely, sectors like media and communications faced declines [20][1].
黄金创史高,热门板块节后回调,捡还是撤?丨周度量化观察
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2025-10-15 02:51