独家洞察 | 告别单一市场！地域多元化是经济碎片化时代的“避风港”

Core Insights - The fragmentation of the global economy is disrupting traditional portfolio diversification strategies, as asset managers can no longer rely solely on a company's registered location to assess risk exposure [1][3] - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of revenue geography in portfolio design, advocating for a more accurate representation of a company's economic risk exposure through the use of the GeoRev dataset [3][4] - The assumption that investing by registration location achieves geographic diversification is increasingly disconnected from economic realities, leading to a misalignment between perceived and actual risk exposure [3][4] Revenue Geography and Investment Performance - Academic literature supports the notion that a company's geographic revenue structure explains stock performance better than its listing location, especially during macroeconomic stress [4][16] - The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is proposed as a measure of geographic revenue concentration, with higher HHI indicating greater concentration and lower HHI indicating more diversification [4][5] - A study using HHI and the GeoRev dataset constructed two portfolios: one with low HHI (globally diversified companies) and another with high HHI (domestically focused companies), revealing significant performance differences during macroeconomic events [5][6] Macroeconomic Cycles and Portfolio Performance - The performance of concentrated portfolios (high HHI) was better during the U.S.-China trade tensions in 2018, while diversified portfolios (low HHI) outperformed during periods of liquidity improvement [8][9] - The analysis indicates a unique market environment characterized by bifurcation, where domestic-oriented and global-oriented companies show significant performance divergence [9][13] - Key macroeconomic indicators, such as the VIX and the trade-weighted dollar index, were studied to quantify and track market bifurcation [9][13] Implications for Investors - Geographic revenue structure is a critical factor for investors, enhancing risk attribution and enabling clearer differentiation of risk sources across countries, industries, and factors [16][18] - The findings suggest that geographic revenue exposure should not be viewed as a secondary variable but as a key perspective for assessing risk, return, and resilience in investment portfolios [18][20] - The article concludes that understanding a company's revenue sources is fundamental for asset managers in an increasingly fragmented global economy [18][20]