【光大研究每日速递】20251015

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September 2025, China's exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from non-US economies, capacity relocation, and a low base effect from the previous year [4] - The export growth is expected to continue, supported by non-US economies and potential "export rush" due to high uncertainty in China-US trade relations [4] - The high export growth rate in October 2024 may exert pressure on year-on-year comparisons in the coming months [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum reached a historical high, indicating a robust performance in the metal cycle sector [5] - The steel sector is anticipated to recover to historical average profit levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Jinmao (0817.HK) reported a signed sales amount of 9.8 billion yuan in September 2025, with a total of 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025 [7] - Salt Lake Co. (000792.SZ) expects a net profit of 4.3 to 4.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.9% to 49.6% [8] - Honglu Steel Structure (002541.SZ) signed new orders worth 22.267 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 1.6% year-on-year increase [9] - Zhongchong Co. (002891.SZ) achieved a revenue of 1.43 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, although net profit decreased by 6.6% due to reduced investment income [9]