【有色】9月电解铝产能利用率续创历史新高水平——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.10.4-10.10）（王招华/戴默）

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific areas of concern such as low PMI indices and fluctuating commodity prices. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is at -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is at $4018 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI index for September is at 45.2%, marking a six-month low [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.62%, cement price index down by 0.89%, rubber down by 1.35%, coke up by 3.65%, coking coal up by 0.30%, and iron ore down by 1.01% [5] - The average daily crude steel output from key enterprises in late September decreased by 8.88% month-on-month [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass increased by 0.77% and remained unchanged, respectively, while glass gross profit is at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit is at -1082 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year low of 46.51%, down by 27.07 percentage points [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.50%, copper up by 5.02%, and aluminum up by 0.91% [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum continues to reach historical highs [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 21020 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3854 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 5.14% month-on-month [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is at 86830 yuan/ton, up by 5.02% [8] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a 14-month low [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.06 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 140 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 440 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton [9] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 is at 47.80%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1014.78 points, down by 6.68% [10] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel is at 77.20%, down by 0.90 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, with the best-performing sector being industrial metals, up by 5.35% [11] - The PB ratio for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is at 40.18% and 97.52%, respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]