芯片的超级周期，四大迹象

Core Insights - Samsung Electronics achieved record sales in Q3, exceeding market expectations for operating profit, indicating a significant profit surprise. This aligns with the positive performance of TSMC and other semiconductor companies, suggesting a global embrace of a semiconductor supercycle [1][2]. Group 1: Signs of the Semiconductor Supercycle - The semiconductor industry is entering a supercycle characterized by soaring demand, supply shortages, and skyrocketing prices, marking the first occurrence since 2018. This supercycle is expected to last at least until 2027 [2]. - Four clear signals indicate the arrival of the supercycle: 1. Rapid growth in demand for AI accelerators due to large-scale data center construction, benefiting companies like Samsung and SK Hynix [2]. 2. A shift in focus towards High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production, leading to a decline in general DRAM output, which is seen as a second sign of the supercycle [2]. 3. Increased sales of enterprise SSDs (eSSD) driven by the need for independent storage as AI expands into inference, indicating a third sign of the supercycle [2]. 4. The inability of Chinese memory companies to catch up in advanced DRAM fields, further supporting the supercycle narrative [2]. Group 2: Structural Differences in the Upcoming Supercycle - The semiconductor supercycle in 2025 will exhibit structural differences compared to previous cycles, primarily driven by investments in AI by large tech companies, rather than mobile device demand [4]. - High-performance semiconductors for AI computing, data centers, and autonomous driving will lead the market, while IoT and consumer electronics will support growth [4]. - The focus has shifted from general DRAM and NAND flash to high-end storage products like HBM, indicating a qualitative change in the market dynamics [5]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Projections - Samsung Electronics is expected to benefit significantly from the structural supercycle, with projections indicating it will hold 32% of the DRAM market and 30% of the NAND flash market by 2026 [5]. - Samsung regained its position as the leader in the memory market in Q3, with sales reaching $19.4 billion, surpassing SK Hynix's $17.5 billion [5]. - Analysts have raised Samsung's operating profit forecast for 2026 by 36% to 73 trillion KRW, reflecting strong performance expectations [5].