Core Viewpoint - The impact of the baby boom in the Year of the Dragon (2024) on the infant formula market is gradually diminishing, leading to intensified competition among leading dairy companies, which are now focusing more on technological advancements rather than price wars [1][3]. Market Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, the overall sales of infant formula in China showed a growth of 1.6%, primarily driven by a 13.5% increase in Stage 2 formula, while Stage 3 formula sales declined by 6.5% [4]. - The sales of Stage 1 formula increased by 9.4%, but this growth rate was lower than that of Stage 2 [5]. Industry Dynamics - The birth rate in China reached 9.54 million in 2024, an increase of 520,000 from the previous year, marking a temporary recovery in the maternal and infant industry [5]. - Despite the market recovery, there are concerns about the sustainability of growth, as the momentum for Stage 1 and overall infant formula sales is beginning to weaken [5]. Competitive Landscape - Leading infant formula brands are leveraging their research and technological advantages to squeeze out smaller brands, with companies like China Feihe announcing new product upgrades aimed at precise nutrition [1][7]. - The number of registered formula series has decreased, but there is still room for market concentration to increase, with 93 dairy companies having 426 formula series registered by the end of August 2025 [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the competition pressure on infant formula companies will intensify in the second half of the year and into 2026, as the effects of the birth boom wane [6][7]. - The focus on research and brand investment by leading companies is expected to attract new consumers, further accelerating market consolidation and reshuffling [7].
奶粉头部玩家技术军备竞赛鸣枪