10月合约即将到期，IC及IM合约深度贴水【股指分红监控】

Key Points - The article discusses the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of October 14, 2025, indicating that no companies in the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are in the proposal, decision, or implementation stages for dividends, with a significant number of companies not distributing dividends [1][3][4] - The article highlights that the coal, banking, and steel industries have the highest dividend yields among the disclosed dividend proposals [2][4] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for various indices are reported, with the Shanghai 50 index having a realized yield of 2.22% and a remaining yield of 0.40%, while the CSI 1000 index has a realized yield of 0.88% and a remaining yield of 0.05% [1][8] - The article tracks the premium and discount of stock index futures, noting that as of October 14, 2025, the annualized premium for the IH main contract is 3.27%, while the IC and IM contracts show significant discounts of 16.39% and 18.17%, respectively [1][4][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of considering dividend impacts when calculating the premium and discount of stock index futures, as dividends can lead to a natural drop in index points [2][24] - The article provides a detailed methodology for estimating dividend points for stock indices, which includes assessing constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, and market capitalization [24][26][28] - The article presents historical data on the accuracy of dividend point estimates, showing that the model performs well for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices, with prediction errors generally within 5 points [38][40]