研报 | 2025年下半年晶圆代工产能利用率优于预期，零星业者酝酿涨价

Core Insights - The wafer foundry capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable in Q4 2025, contrary to earlier predictions of a decline, due to low inventory levels at IC manufacturers, the peak sales season for smartphones, and strong AI demand [2][3] - Some wafer fabs are planning to raise prices for BCD and Power process platforms due to tight supply conditions, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] - Despite the positive outlook for the second half of 2025, uncertainties in the global market and a lack of innovation in consumer products may pose risks for 2026 [3] Summary by Sections - Wafer Foundry Performance: The capacity utilization rate for wafer foundries is expected to hold steady in Q4 2025, with some fabs even outperforming Q3 due to replenished inventory and strong demand from AI-related ICs [2] - Market Dynamics: The anticipated price increases for certain process platforms reflect a market environment that is moving away from aggressive price competition, particularly in mature processes [3] - Future Outlook: While the current situation appears stable, potential challenges for 2026 include prolonged replacement cycles for consumer products and a lack of innovative applications [3]