奢侈品的“软着陆”来了？

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods industry is experiencing a "soft landing" after a period of stagnation, with signs of recovery in the U.S. market and stabilization in China, despite ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and investment sentiment [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - Analysts expect moderate growth in Q3, with HSBC predicting a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in global luxury goods sales, following declines of 0.4% and 0.8% in the first two quarters [5]. - The consensus indicates that recovery will be uneven across brands, with some brands performing better than others, signaling that the worst phase has passed [5][6]. Group 2: China Market Dynamics - The Chinese market remains a critical variable for the luxury goods sector, with current improvements seen as a "mechanical" recovery from a low base, despite ongoing issues like a weak real estate market and high youth unemployment [6]. - While most brands in mainland China still report negative growth, the decline has narrowed significantly, with some leading brands, such as Louis Vuitton, returning to positive growth [7]. Group 3: U.S. Market Recovery - The U.S. market is a key driver of the industry's rebound, recovering quickly from earlier trade policy disruptions, with strong domestic brands performing well [9]. - Factors such as a stable dollar, declining interest rates, and rising stock markets have alleviated pricing pressures on luxury goods [9]. Group 4: Brand Performance Differentiation - LVMH is expected to see a slight decline of about 0.8% in Q3, but its fashion and leather goods division has improved, with a reduction in decline from -9% in Q2 to -4% [10]. - Kering's performance shows a significant improvement, with Gucci's decline narrowing from -25% to -12%, driven by the introduction of more accessible handbag lines [10][13]. Group 5: Creative Cycle and Future Outlook - Analysts are looking forward to the Spring/Summer 2026 collections, anticipating a "creative refresh" with new creative directors at major brands, which could lead to increased consumer interest [15]. - The current season's new products emphasize accessories, which may help drive foot traffic back to stores, indicating a potential for sales rebound [15].