招商银行研究·2025-10-15 10:06Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the macroeconomic environment, focusing on monetary policy adjustments and their implications for the financial markets and the real economy [4][5][18]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The macroeconomic research highlights a gradual economic slowdown in China, with an opening of policy space to stimulate growth [5]. - The commentary on the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicates a shift towards a more dovish stance, suggesting potential interest rate cuts in response to economic conditions [18][20]. Monetary Policy Insights - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is emphasized in the context of the 2025 Q2 monetary policy execution report, aiming to alleviate financial pressures and promote sustainable growth [4]. - The analysis of the monetary policy execution report indicates a focus on maintaining liquidity while managing inflation expectations [4]. Capital Market Research - The capital market reports suggest that the bond market is facing headwinds, with recommendations to maintain a short to medium-term bond allocation strategy [9][10]. - The commentary on the bond market indicates that volatility is expected to increase, presenting potential opportunities for investors to capitalize on market corrections [11]. Economic Data Commentary - Recent economic data from China shows signs of resilience despite external pressures, with a focus on recovery and growth in key sectors [5]. - The analysis of U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates mixed signals, with employment growth slowing down, which may influence the Fed's future policy decisions [18].