国泰海通证券研究·2025-10-15 13:11Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, while Chinese equity assets and gold may still present performance opportunities. It recommends increasing holdings in AH shares and gold in October, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments, aimed at guiding investment decisions [1]. - SAA is designed to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio robustness [1]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The report is optimistic about Chinese equities, recommending an equity allocation weight of 41.25% for October, with overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The report indicates that geopolitical uncertainties may create buying opportunities in the Chinese market, suggesting that the current market adjustments are not the end of the upward trend [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation - The report maintains a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a bond allocation weight of 45% for October, with standard allocations to both long-term and short-term government bonds [3]. - It notes that the imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The report expresses a neutral to optimistic view on commodities, recommending a commodity allocation weight of 13.75% for October, with an overweight position in gold [3]. - It highlights that gold prices have recently surged past key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3].