Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 券商中国·2025-10-15 15:09Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has surged to a 45-year high due to a historical "short squeeze," with significant increases in trading volume in the Chinese silver derivatives market attracting more investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The London silver spot inventory has decreased by 75% since 2019, leading to a spike in leasing rates for silver, which has forced short sellers to transport silver from New York to London, driving prices higher [3]. - Year-to-date, the price of London silver has increased by 82.29%, significantly outperforming gold, which has risen by 59.41% [4]. - The liquidity in the London silver market has tightened, causing short sellers to face substantial delivery risks and high costs to acquire physical silver [5]. Group 2: Trading Activity and Regulations - On October 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced a one-month trading restriction on a client due to excessive self-trading in silver futures, highlighting regulatory scrutiny in the market [7]. - The trading volume of silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 27.51 million contracts in September, a 125.59% increase month-on-month, indicating growing investor interest [7]. Group 3: Risk Assessment - Goldman Sachs has warned of short-term volatility and downside risks in the silver market, suggesting that without central bank support, even minor corrections could trigger market panic [6]. - The volatility in the silver market was evident on October 14, when silver futures experienced fluctuations exceeding 6%, reflecting the market's fragility at high price levels [6].