【固收】信贷的“形”与“势”——2025年10月15日利率债观察（张旭）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current state and future potential of credit growth in China, particularly highlighting the data from September 2025 as indicative of both the present "form" and the future "momentum" of credit expansion [4][5]. - In September 2025, new RMB loans increased by 700 billion yuan, marking a significant rise compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in credit growth [4][5]. - The article suggests that the credit growth in September is a result of financial institutions adjusting their lending strategies, which could have been even higher if they had fully opened up credit issuance [5][6]. Group 2 - The anticipated credit growth for the fourth quarter is supported by the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, which are expected to stimulate credit demand [6]. - The article notes that certain months this year experienced negative year-on-year credit growth due to the impact of local government debt replacement, but the fourth quarter is likely to show improvement compared to the third quarter [6][7]. - The overall economic indicators, such as M1 growth at 7.2% and a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, reflect a positive trend in the economy, further supporting the notion of improving credit conditions [7]. Group 3 - The stock market has shown a significant upward trend since May, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3912.21 points, indicating increased investor confidence in economic growth [7]. - The article concludes that the financial support for the real economy has strengthened, and there is optimism regarding potential future monetary policy actions, such as the central bank restarting open market operations [7].