光大证券研究·2025-10-15 23:06Core Viewpoints - CPI is influenced by rising prices of gold and durable goods, with the core CPI year-on-year growth increasing to +1.0%. However, the overall CPI remains in negative territory due to increased supply of live pigs and falling pork prices. It is expected that as the high base effect from the previous year dissipates in Q4, the negative impact from food prices will weaken, leading to a potential positive CPI year-on-year [4][5]. - PPI shows a stabilization in month-on-month growth for two consecutive months, with a narrowing year-on-year decline that is slightly better than market expectations. This is attributed to the fading high base effect from the previous year, stabilization of prices in certain industries like coal, steel, and photovoltaics due to policy measures, and rising prices of non-ferrous metals driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts and tightening copper supply. However, it is anticipated that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will slow down in Q4 due to diminishing support from the base effect and obstacles in price transmission from upstream to downstream [5]. Summary of Data - CPI year-on-year: -0.3% (previous: -0.4%, market expectation: -0.1%); month-on-month: +0.1% (previous: 0%) [4]. - Core CPI year-on-year: +1.0% (previous: +0.9%) [4]. - PPI year-on-year: -2.3% (previous: -2.9%, market expectation: -2.4%); month-on-month: 0% (previous: 0%) [4].