数据点评 | 通胀“超预期”的三大线索（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The increase in commodity prices has boosted upstream PPI, while rising prices of gold and home appliances have significantly impacted downstream CPI [2][59] - The overall CPI remains low primarily due to the drag from food prices, while core CPI growth is expanding, driven by the increasing influence of gold prices [2][59] Group 1: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI improved, mainly due to the continued rise in commodity prices, particularly copper, which saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1% [2][10] - The PPI for the mining and processing of non-ferrous metals contributed a 0.1% increase to the overall PPI, while coal prices also rose, contributing another 0.1% [2][10] - However, low capacity utilization in downstream sectors has hindered the transmission of upstream price increases, resulting in a -0.1% drag on PPI [2][10] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The overall CPI is low, primarily due to food price declines, with the core CPI rising to 1.1%, driven by core goods CPI which increased by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4% [2][16] - Gold prices have had a strong uplifting effect on core goods CPI, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively, contributing approximately 0.7 percentage points to core CPI [2][16] - Food CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to -4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI decline [2][28] Group 3: Home Appliances and Services CPI - Home appliance CPI reached a nearly ten-year high at 5.5%, influenced by rising costs of raw materials like copper and aluminum, along with improved demand [2][20] - The concentration of national subsidies in late September may have led to a spike in sales of subsidized goods, further driving up home appliance CPI [2][20] - In contrast, food CPI and service CPI continue to exert downward pressure, with service CPI remaining flat and virtual rent CPI showing weak performance due to high youth unemployment and low rental demand [2][28][51] Group 4: Future Outlook - Non-involution factors continue to push up commodity prices, but excess supply in downstream sectors and the tapering of national subsidies are expected to keep inflation weak for the remainder of the year [2][61] - While coal and steel price increases are expected to slow, copper prices are anticipated to remain strong, sustaining contributions to PPI [2][61] - The pressure from downstream PPI on CPI is expected to persist, with core CPI likely to maintain a high level due to rising gold prices [2][61]