经济前瞻 | 新旧力量交替期（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the gradual emergence of internal economic pressures under the decline of "cyclical" forces, with export growth remaining robust despite challenges such as US-China tariffs, driven by the industrialization of emerging countries and China's market share increase in emerging markets [2][10] - Domestic demand is expected to remain under pressure, indicated by a decline in equipment renewal cycles and reduced new construction, leading to potential further downturns in manufacturing and real estate investments [2][22] - Manufacturing investment has been strong due to natural equipment renewal cycles, but this is now entering a downturn phase, as evidenced by the difference between manufacturing investment and fixed asset growth rates reaching a peak and beginning to decline [2][22] Group 2 - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may have a delayed impact on economic stimulation, with the effects of demand overextension from previous policies becoming more apparent, potentially leading to weaker consumer goods and manufacturing investment [4][83] - Fiscal support is nearing its limits, with government debt issuance slowing and fiscal revenue recovery being sluggish, making it difficult for broad fiscal spending to maintain high growth rates [4][83] - The new policies, while beneficial for long-term economic quality growth, may constrain short-term economic growth, as seen in the significant drop in fixed asset investment due to funding constraints from new policy implementations [4][45] Group 3 - The slow rollout of "incremental policies" and the existing time lag in their economic transmission are expected to limit their immediate impact on economic growth, with significant effects likely not materializing until late in the fourth quarter or early 2026 [5][84] - Recent data indicates a decline in inflation support, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, which diminishes their positive impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [6][59] - The anticipated recovery in prices is expected to be weak, with both PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing signs of slow recovery due to various factors, including high youth unemployment affecting rental prices [6][63] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the internal growth momentum of the economy is expected to decline, with a focus on the effectiveness of new policies in supporting domestic demand [8][71] - Despite the challenges, external demand is anticipated to remain resilient, with exports expected to perform well due to improvements in demand from developed countries and increased market share in emerging economies [8][71] - Overall, the economic downward pressure is considered limited, with GDP growth projected at 4.6% for the third quarter and 4.8% for the fourth quarter [8][75]