国内高频 | 生产回落、出行走强 （申万宏观·赵伟团队）
赵伟宏观探索·2025-10-15 16:03

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production has shown a slight decline, with high furnace operation rates remaining high but experiencing a week-on-week stability at 84.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points to 83.4% [2] - The apparent consumption of steel has decreased significantly, with a week-on-week drop of 18.7% and a year-on-year decline of 29.8% to 17.6% [2] - The inventory of steel has increased by 6.5% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Midstream Production Insights - The operating rates in the petrochemical and automotive sectors have declined, with the soda ash operating rate decreasing by 0.8% week-on-week to 88.4%, and a year-on-year drop of 1.5 percentage points to 0.6% [7] - The textile industry has also seen a decrease, with PTA operating rates increasing by 1% to 77.5% week-on-week but down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to 5.6% [7] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has dropped significantly, down 27.1% week-on-week to 46.5%, and down 22.9 percentage points year-on-year to 28.5% [7] Group 3: Construction Industry Performance - Cement demand has decreased, with the cement shipment rate falling by 3% week-on-week to 44.3%, and a year-on-year decline of 4.9 percentage points to 9.1% [14] - The cement inventory ratio has slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 1.4 percentage points to 1.4% [14] - The average price of cement has seen a slight increase during the week [14] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing has improved, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreasing by 55.7% week-on-week but increasing by 21.3 percentage points year-on-year to 0.3% [30] - The freight volume related to domestic demand has shown weakness, with road freight volume down 25.6% year-on-year to 15.9% [37] - Passenger travel remains high, with the migration scale index at a high level, increasing by 37.2 percentage points year-on-year to 62.4% [46] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork decreasing by 3.4%, 2.4%, and 0.3% respectively [65] - The industrial product price index has shown a mixed trend, with the Nanhua industrial product price index down 0.2% week-on-week, while the energy and chemical price index decreased by 2% [75]