【小菜园（0999.HK）】大众餐饮高性价比标杆，供应链提效稳质价——投资价值分析报告（陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅）

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and competitive advantages of Xiaocaiyuan, a leading brand in the mass catering sector, particularly in the Chinese casual dining market, focusing on its innovative strategies and market positioning [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a top brand in the mass catering chain market, specializing in "New Huai Cuisine" with an average customer price of 50-70 yuan, holding a 0.2% market share in 2023 [4]. - The company operates multiple brands, including Xiaocaiyuan and Caishou, and plans to expand to 752 direct-operated Xiaocaiyuan stores by the end of September 2025, focusing on community business districts [4][6]. - The supply chain has evolved from regional procurement to a nationwide cold chain network, with a concentrated shareholding structure and a robust incentive system [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The mass catering market in China, defined as having an average price below 100 yuan, reached a scale of 36,187 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 88.7% of the Chinese dining market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2023 to 2028 [5]. - The community dining segment has grown from 11.4 trillion yuan in 2018 to 13.7 trillion yuan in 2023, with an expected CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028 [5]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Xiaocaiyuan targets the 50-100 yuan price segment, aligning with consumer trends while maintaining strict quality control over ingredients [6]. - The company has established cost barriers through centralized procurement, central processing, and cold chain distribution, with a single store investment ranging from 1.3 to 1.7 million yuan and a payback period shorter than the industry average [6]. - The brand employs a "trust mechanism" and cultural symbols to enhance its value proposition, supported by a "headquarters-regional-store" structure for growth [6]. Group 4: Expansion Plans - In the short term, Xiaocaiyuan plans to accelerate store openings, aiming for 800 stores by the end of 2025 and 1,000 by the end of 2026, with a focus on domestic lower-tier markets and international expansion [7][8]. - Long-term projections suggest that the brand could reach 2,050 stores, with the sub-brand Caishou targeting the community market with a lower price point of 20-40 yuan, leveraging Xiaocaiyuan's supply chain to fill market gaps and enhance overall penetration [8].