中金点睛·2025-10-15 23:54Core Viewpoint - The regulatory policy for long dramas is shifting from strict regulation to a balance of relaxation and deepening, with a more diversified and refined regulatory approach. The implementation of new broadcasting regulations is expected to promote content supply innovation, leading the industry into a virtuous cycle in the future [2][5]. Background Review - The rise of short dramas, represented by platforms like Hongguo, has intensified competition for long dramas, leading to tightened budgets in the downstream sector. This has accelerated the clearing of supply in the upstream sector but has also affected the stability and creativity of content creators [4][6]. - The supply side of the long drama industry is gradually stabilizing after a period of adjustment, with a focus on quality improvement and diversification of genres. The overall number of new dramas is expected to stabilize starting in 2024 [4][14]. New Regulations Observation - The new broadcasting regulations aim to foster content supply innovation, providing a friendly environment for content creation. The key to future development lies in the impact of supply changes on user retention. Short-term benefits include the release of backlog dramas and shortened review cycles, while medium-term strategies focus on optimizing cost structures through a "script-centered" approach [5][34]. - The long-term outlook suggests that series development will enhance production stability and IP value potential, with the industry likely to recover under the new policy cycle [5][37]. Industry Trends - The long video platforms are increasingly focusing on exclusive dramas and member content, with membership revenue becoming a core income source. For instance, in 2024, membership revenue accounted for 60.8% and 24.4% of total revenue for iQIYI and Mango TV, respectively [23][24]. - The supply of costume dramas, a significant genre for young female audiences, has shown a recovery trend after a decline from 2019 to 2022. The proportion of costume dramas in the top 10 popular dramas has exceeded 40% in recent years [27][28]. Policy Background - The regulatory framework for the video drama industry is evolving from strict regulation to a more relaxed and detailed approach, with the implementation of new measures aimed at enhancing content supply and innovation. The new regulations emphasize improving the efficiency of review mechanisms and expanding content categories [32][33]. Future Development - In the short term, the release of backlog dramas and shortened review cycles are expected to facilitate cash flow and stimulate industry recovery. In the medium term, a focus on script quality and cost management is anticipated to improve production efficiency [34][36]. - Long-term strategies will likely involve a shift from standalone hits to series development, enhancing the stability of production and maximizing the potential of IP value through diversified derivative products [37][39].