宋雪涛：四月不重演，但有新挑战

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of US-China trade relations, emphasizing that the recent tensions are more about negotiation tactics rather than an imminent escalation of tariffs. It suggests that both countries are preparing for upcoming negotiations with a mix of incentives and countermeasures [4][12][17]. Group 1: Trade Tensions and Negotiation Strategies - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on all products from China starting November 1, along with export controls on key software, has raised concerns about an escalation in the trade war [4][10]. - The ongoing US-China negotiations are characterized by mutual pressure, which is seen as a normal part of high-stakes negotiations rather than a clear signal of escalating tariffs [4][12]. - China is preparing for negotiations by offering potential benefits to the US, such as large orders for agricultural products and technology, while also implementing countermeasures like export controls on critical resources [4][6][7]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - The US has expanded its export control measures through the "50% rule," which extends restrictions to non-US subsidiaries that are majority-owned by sanctioned entities [6][8]. - In response, China has introduced strict export controls on rare earth elements, requiring licenses for any products containing even a minimal amount of Chinese-produced rare earths [6][9]. - This tit-for-tat approach indicates an escalation in the competition over critical resources and high-tech supply chains between the two nations [7][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The current market environment is significantly calmer compared to the panic seen during the April trade tensions, with the market reacting more positively to recent developments [20][21]. - Despite the trade tensions, China's exports have shown resilience, with a 5.9% growth in the first half of the year and an 8.3% increase in September, indicating that high tariffs are losing their effectiveness as a negotiation tool [12][20]. - The focus of the market is shifting towards the sustainability of the AI narrative and the implications of US fiscal policies, which may lead to volatility in high-priced US stocks [26][22].