经济从“韧”到“进”的可期之路：申万期货早间评论-20251016

Economic Overview - The overall consumption market in China remained stable in September, with CPI rising by 0.1% month-on-month and decreasing by 0.3% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][7] - The construction of a unified national market is progressing, leading to improved market competition, with PPI remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][7] - In the first three quarters of this year, the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1][8] Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to strengthen, surpassing $4,200 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over the U.S. economy [2][19] - The Federal Reserve's hints at pausing balance sheet reduction and the ongoing trade war have heightened investor interest in gold as a long-term safe asset [2][19] - Despite the rapid price increase, there is a caution regarding potential adjustments and increased volatility due to accumulated profit positions [2][19] Copper Market - Copper prices declined in the night session, with tight supply of concentrates and smelting profits at breakeven levels, while smelting output continues to grow [2][20] - Investment in the power grid remains positive, while investments in power generation are slowing down, indicating mixed demand trends in the copper market [2][20] - The potential impact of mining accidents in Indonesia may lead to a shift in global copper supply-demand dynamics, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][20] Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 0.7% in the night session, influenced by geopolitical developments and OPEC's forecast of increased global oil demand [3][14] - OPEC projects a daily increase in global oil demand of 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year, driven by strong economic activity [3][14] - Short-term oil prices are expected to trend downward, reflecting market uncertainties [3][14] Financial Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains stable, but demand is low, with many employers reducing staff through layoffs or natural attrition [6] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates mixed economic activity across various districts, with some reporting slight to moderate growth while others show signs of weakness [6] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations due to trade tensions and supply concerns, with expectations of a delay in the USDA report due to the U.S. government shutdown [26][27] - Domestic supply remains ample, putting pressure on soybean prices despite some support from harvesting expectations [26][27] - The palm oil market is under pressure from high inventory levels and ongoing trade tensions, although long-term demand may be supported by seasonal production declines [28]