“潜在”贸易风险下，特斯拉Optimus产业链公司如何破局？

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of the humanoid robot industry, particularly focusing on the T-chain and its response to potential trade and regulatory risks between the US and China [3][7][10]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market for humanoid robots is currently more active than the primary market, with significant concerns regarding supply chain issues due to recent tariff disputes [2][3]. - Despite some large orders in Q3, the effectiveness and actual delivery of these orders are questioned, indicating a potential bubble in the market driven by companies seeking to go public or secure funding [3][4]. Key Players and Supply Chains - The humanoid robot supply chain consists of four main chains: T-chain, H-chain, Yushul chain, and Zhiyuan chain, with T-chain being the most prominent beneficiary of recent market movements, particularly due to Tesla's Optimus project [3][4]. - Tesla's Optimus project has catalyzed significant stock price increases for various T-chain companies, with many achieving record highs in September [4][6]. Production and Risk Management - Tesla is reportedly preparing for the mass production of the Optimus Gen3 model, with indications that it will enter production in 2026 [9][10]. - To mitigate potential trade and regulatory risks, Tesla has established production bases overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and the US, which helps avoid future uncertainties related to US-China trade relations [10][11]. Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is critical for Tesla and the humanoid robot sector, with numerous upcoming events that could significantly impact market performance, including factory audits and the finalization of the Optimus Gen3 model [11][12]. - The article suggests that if the developments in Q4 proceed smoothly, the T-chain and the broader robot sector could experience a substantial market upturn [11][12].