ASML Holding(US:ASML) 投中网·2025-10-16 03:14Core Viewpoint - ASML's Q3 financial results were stable, with AI storage demand being a key support factor, and the Q4 guidance is optimistic, although attention is needed on the anticipated decline in Chinese demand by FY2026 and geopolitical risks [6][31]. Financial Performance - ASML reported Q3 revenue of €7.516 billion, slightly below the industry consensus expectation of €7.68 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.3% [6][9]. - The company maintained its full-year growth forecast at 15%, with Q4 revenue guidance set between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion [10][31]. - The earnings per share were €5.49, slightly above the expected €5.33, primarily due to lower expenses than anticipated [6][19]. Order Book and Market Dynamics - New orders in Q3 reached €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.97 billion, driven by a significant increase in storage-related orders [11][13]. - The structure of new orders shifted, with the share of logic-related orders dropping from 84% to 53%, while storage orders rose from 16% to 47% [13][17]. Cost Management and Profitability - ASML's cost control measures resulted in lower expenses than previously guided, contributing to a higher-than-expected gross margin [19][22]. - Q3 gross margin was positively impacted by a reduction in sales and R&D expenses, which were lower than the guidance provided in Q2 [22][24]. Product and Revenue Structure - In Q3, revenue from lithography machines was €5.554 billion, accounting for 73.9% of total revenue, while service revenue was €1.962 billion, making up 26.1% [26]. - The average selling price for EUV machines was approximately €317 million, reflecting a 5.4% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while ArFi product prices also saw a decline [27][30]. Future Outlook - The management's guidance for Q4 is optimistic, with expectations for revenue to reach up to €9.8 billion, although there are concerns regarding a significant drop in demand from Chinese customers by FY2026 [8][31]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry [18][31].